Livestock Outlook
« Should You Buy Fertilizer Now? | Home | Grain Market Outlook »
Image: Tom Curtis / FreeDigitalPhotos.net
The livestock business is a challenging industry. Global demand for cattle and pork has been on the decrease for several years now – not only is red meat becoming a less popular dietary choice, but disease outbreak like Swine Flu and Mad Cow disease have had a very negative PR impact on the industry at large. What’s the outlook for livestock? We took a look at the trends going forward:
Beef: It was a tough slog for crop farmers this year, as the cool summer delayed harvest right into December across many parts of the country. Now weather analysts say that trend is going to continue with a prolonged winter – and that ongoing cold could take a toll on cattle by increasing feeding costs and the number of death losses. Prediction: lower average weights and a small increase to beef and cattle prices.
Pork: Canadian farmers are getting out of hog farming in large numbers this year, due to the rapid decline in the industry, and the possibility of government assistance through loan programs like Hog Transition Program. Nonetheless, early statistics are indicating that pork production may not be as low as previously forecast, and that pork exports may even be slightly ahead of last year’s figures.
Poultry: Currently the leader in the livestock industry, chicken and egg sales remain strong and are on the increase. In part, this is due to chicken’s reputation as “the healthy meat” choice, as well as the fact that there haven’t been a lot of scares around poultry lately, with outbreaks of Bird Flu having passed out of media favour. Shell eggs have seen strong gains in the markets for egg consumption and egg products. Similarly, while year-over-year egg production numbers have increased, egg prices were significantly strengthened in 2009’s fourth quarter due to strong demand. The forecast for turkey meat has currently been downgraded from the last quarter’s figures, but with the fall still pretty far away, those numbers stand a good chance of exceeding the forecast.
Dairy: Analysts say herd sizes are on the decline and that trend will continue, although feed costs for the coming year look good and milk prices will likely rise on the world market this year. Exports are strong, particularly for skim milk products, and higher domestic consumption is predicted as well.
